ETH Medal - Distinction of Doctoral Thesis
Leila Mizrahi and Giulio Bini are honoured with the Silver Medal of ETH Zurich for their outstanding doctoral theses.
Leila Mizrahi
Doctoral thesis title:
Towards Next Generation Time-Dependent Earthquake Forecasting
Thesis supervisor:
Prof. Stefan Wiemer, Department of Earth Sciences
Second advisors:
PD Dr. Sebastian HAINZL, (unabh.), GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
Dr. Shyam NANDAN, Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich
"The study of earthquake occurrence is both fascinating and disheartening. After millennia of studying earthquakes, we are far from predicting them, and yet, they clearly exhibit certain patterns, which motivate us to persist. In my thesis, I investigate the topic of earthquake forecasting, that is, the calculation of earthquake probabilities in a pre-specified space-time-magnitude domain, from various perspectives. I examine different forecasting horizons, from long-term (time-independent) to short-term (time-dependent) forecasts, across geographical regions such as California, Italy, and Switzerland. After illuminating deficiencies in a widely used practice for long-term forecasting, I transition to proposing improved methods for earthquake forecasting at all time horizons by accounting for spatio-temporal variations of data incompleteness. I then apply these enhanced methods in the development of Switzerland’s first operational earthquake forecasting model. Finally, I propose an innovative approach to combine different models, thereby producing superior forecasts while revealing strengths and weaknesses of the ingredient models."
Giulio Bini
Doctoral thesis title:
Interpreting the dynamics of magmatic-hydrothermal systems using the chemistry of
gas emissions: the case of the Nisyros caldera (Aegean Arc, Greece)
Thesis supervisor:
Prof. Olivier Bachmann, Department of Earth Sciences
Second advisors:
Dr. Giovanni CHIODINI, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, sezione di Bologna
Prof. Dr. Tobias FISCHER, (unabh.), Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of New Mexico
Prof. Dr. Silvio MOLLO, Department of Earth Sciences, Sapienza-University of Rome
"This thesis focuses on the chemistry of volcanic gas emissions and the development of new methods to improve volcano monitoring, using the Nisyros caldera (South Aegean Volcanic Arc, Greece) as a case study. Isotopes of carbon and noble gases help us to better understand the dynamics of magmatic-hydrothermal systems, as they can be used for filtering the contribution of magmatic fluids within the gas emission sampled at the surface. Clear increases in the fraction of magmatic gases detected in the emissions during unrest periods reveal that volatiles outgas from magma mostly in episodes. These episodes are not strictly related to eruptions or recharges of mafic magmas in the upper-crustal reservoir, but can be favoured by both the accumulation of fluids exsolved during magma evolution and earthquakes. The permeability increase in the crust triggered by earthquakes can also favour magmatic outgassing from evolved upper-crustal reservoirs at high-crystallinity. These results can be helpful not only to monitor volcanos in quiescence and unrest periods, but also to gain insights into the physical state of shallow magma reservoirs."